China
The final receipt is estimated to be in line with the early forecast of 1.4 million metric tons. At the time of writing this report, local consumption was slower due to long-term quarantine. Exports, both in-shell and shelled, were down by over 30% and 40%, respectively, with prices 14% lower compared to the same period last season. Many packers have switched to local production as farm-gate pricing has not dropped enough to meet the global competition. However, given the current epidemic policy adjustments, the abundant supply, the appreciation of Chinese currency and lower sea freight, consumption and exports were expected to recover after the Spring Festival holiday.
USA
According to the California Walnut Board shipment report, receipts as of January 31, 2023 were 747,870 short tons (678,456 metric tons), 4% above the USDA objective estimate of 720,000 ST. Year-to-date (September 2022-January 2023) total domestic shipments were up 13.7% over the prior year (116,353 ST/105,554 MT, in-shell equivalent) and exports remained relatively flat compared to the previous season (207,537 ST/188,274 MT). The 44% fall in shipments to Europe was somehow compensated by an increment of 49% of shipments to Middle East and Africa.
As per industry sources, the pre-harvest heat caused 80,000-100,000 MT (in-shell basis) of the 2022/23 crop to be light amber or darker. This amount will most likely be destined to USDA nutritional assistance programs, animal feed or oil before August, leaving a marketable carry-out of 70,000-80,000 MT.
Chile
According to Chilenut, the 2023/24 crop is preliminary forecasted at 191,000 MT, based on weather conditions and fruit counts at the time of this report. Exports YTD (March 2022-January 2023) added up to 174,948 MT, 19% up from 2021/22 YTD. The top market was the Middle East/Africa, with a 46% increment year on year, while Europe registered shipments 7% below the previous season.