Brazil nut season 2020 was characterized by lockdowns, production starting and stopping, poor yields and falling export prices. The expectation was that 2021 would see a pickup in demand, a smaller crop and a return to more sustainable pricing levels. Expectations were overstepped.
Although 2021 saw the lowest starting crop price for more than 10 years, this did not last long. Demand was reactivated and increased buying of raw material by many actors across multiple countries quickly pushed raw material prices higher. This increased buying, alongside information from the forest of a reduced harvest, further strengthened the force with which buyers covered raw material. In parallel, exporters were almost unanimously withdrawn from offering. Lack of supply meant that those who could offer were able to achieve higher export prices which reflected the cost of raw material. As the season progressed the pattern remained the same. Increasing raw material prices, withdrawal of factories and an increasing export price. Added to this, the deterioration of yields meant higher costs.
By mid-September, the end of the harvest was well passed and factories were clearing their final balances before shutting their doors for maintenance and preparation for the next season. The expectation is that, given the high price of raw material, collectors will be eager to start the season as early as the weather permits. Normally this is November/December. Depending on how much factories can gather in that time will determine when they will have sufficient volume to start cracking and exporting. In a normal year that is normally not before March.