The information contained herein was prepared between mid-January and mid-March 2025.
South Africa. According to Macadamias South Africa, the preliminary 2025 crop estimate, based on a forecasting model, projects a 7% growth from 2024, reaching 93,588 metric tons, in-shell basis at 1.5% moisture content / 95,500 MT @3.5% m.c. Despite some regional variation, the overall outlook remains positive, with young trees looking very good and older orchards expected to deliver an average crop. High temperatures may impact nut size and weight. Further updates will follow as the season progresses.
China. Despite significant drought during bloom and heavy rain during harvest, total production in 2024 reached approximately 5,000 MT more than in 2023, driven by increased acreage. With favorable weather during the next bloom and harvest periods, the 2025 crop is expected to increase by another 5,000 to 10,000 MT.
The Chinese market remains strong for Small Styles 1 and 4, while the sawn roasted and salted NIS market has weakened due to lower domestic crop quality, and the inventory was anticipated to take time to clear.
Australia. The 2024 crop increased 11.5% from 2023, surpassing expectations despite challenging conditions. As announced by the Australian Macadamia Society, the 2025 crop is expected to be impacted by severe weather conditions following ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred. Although it is too early to quantify the full impact, key growing regions experienced damaging winds, heavy rainfall and flooding. The first 2025 forecast projected a 5% year-on-year increase to 56,890 MT in-shell at 3.5% moisture. However, this forecast will be reviewed in light of cyclone-related damage, with an updated figure to be released by the end of March.
Kenya. Good flowering and fruit set were reported across orchards in various regions early in the year. A 5-8% increase in production compared to last year was anticipated, with the 2025 production forecasted at 47,500 MT (in-shell basis).
