The INC has released its latest Global Statistical Review with 2021/2022 production forecast updates on tree nuts, peanuts and dried fruits.
November 2021. With the northern hemisphere harvest completed, the world tree nut production for the 2021/2022 season has been forecasted at about five million metric tons (kernel basis, except pistachios in-shell), down by 8% from 2020/21, but yet following the last decade growing trend and above the 2011/12-2019/20 volumes. Between 2011/12 and 2021/22, tree nut production grew by 54%. In spite of the COVID-19-related disruptions, overall demand remained strong in the 2020/21 marketing year, with most tree nut exports showing increments compared to the prior season and even hitting record international shipments. This season, the global shipment and logistics disruptions are creating some delays and short-term supply shortages, making it a challenge to monitor and assess the situation at any given time.
With the US expecting a shorter crop, almond world production is forecasted down from 2020/21; similarly, due to the top pistachio producers, USA, Iran and Turkey, experiencing good “off years”, total crop is also forecasted lower than the previous season. Global walnut production is anticipated to end up slightly below 2020/21 levels, as China is expecting an average crop and California a shorter one, following last season’s record. A smaller crop of Brazil nuts is also anticipated. Cashew, hazelnut and macadamia 2021/22 crops are foreseen to end up between 3% and 7% up from last season, while the biggest increment is observed for pine nuts, mainly due to larger crops in China and Russia.
World peanut production is expected to amount to about 50.5 M MT, 2% up from 2020/21, with larger crops expected for Nicaragua (14%), Brazil (9%), Nigeria (8%), China (4%), USA (2%) and India (1%).
The world production of dried fruit in 2021/22 has been forecasted at around 3.17 M MT, a growth of 6% compared to 2020/21, as production is expected to increase significantly for prunes and dates, and slightly for dried grapes (raisins, Sultanas and currants) and dried cranberries. Prune production is expected to recover in the USA and Serbia, as well as in Chile and Argentina, which are anticipating a better 2022 harvest. Date production is expected to grow in all origins owing to the expansion of new plantations in North Africa and the Middle East.
