New US tariffs, countermeasures, and reversals create a chaotic trade landscape
The blanket 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada announced by US President Donald Trump in early February took effect on March 4, 2025, as reported by CNN. Trump also doubled the new tariff on China, which is imposed on top of existing tariffs on Chinese goods, from 10% to 20%.
China and Canada quickly retaliated with tariffs on American goods. Canada announced a 25% tariff on US$20.7 billion of US goods, including on peanut butter, effective March 4. China announced its own retaliatory measures on March 4, including an additional 10% tariff on most US tree nuts, dried fruits, and peanut butter, among other agricultural products (see table below).
Shortly thereafter, Trump abruptly backtracked on some of the measures. On March 5, he granted a one-month reprieve on automotive tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The following day, he said he would suspend the 25% tariff on products traded under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, but implied that other tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products would be coming in April.
On March 12, the European Union announced countermeasures in response to Trump’s 25% tariff on European steel and aluminum, which had just come into effect. Firstly, the suspension of existing 2018 and 2020 countermeasures against the US will be allowed to lapse on April 1, whereupon 25% duties will come into effect on US peanut butter and dried cranberries. Secondly, the European Commission put forward a package of new countermeasures on US goods, which are expected to come into force by mid-April, after a public consultation open until March 26 as well as consultation with EU Member States. The list of US products that could be targeted by these measures includes in-shell and shelled almonds as well as crude peanut oil. The amount of the additional duties that will be charged under these new countermeasures was not announced.
At the time of this report, uncertainty reigned as businesses and trade partners scrambled to assess the evolving tariff landscape, with exemptions, retaliatory measures, and policy reversals unfolding rapidly.
| Nuts and dried fruits affected by China’s new additional 10% tariff on US goods, effective March 10, 2025 | |||
| Almonds, in-shell (080211) | Hazelnuts, in-shell (080221) | Pine nuts, shelled (080292) | Dates (080410) |
| Almonds, shelled (080212) | Hazelnuts, shelled (080222) | Pistachios, in-shell (080251) | Dried apricots (081310) |
| Brazil nuts, in-shell (080121) | Macadamias, in-shell (080261) | Pistachios, shelled (080252) | Cranberries (200893) |
| Brazil nuts, shelled (080122) | Macadamias, shelled (080262) | Walnuts, in-shell (080231) | Figs (080420) |
| Cashews, in-shell (080131) | Pecans, in-shell (08029910) | Walnuts, shelled (080232) | Dried grapes (080620) |
| Cashews, shelled (080132) | Pine nuts, in-shell (080291) | Peanut butter (20081130) | Prunes (081320) |
HS codes in parentheses. Source: Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China. (2025, March 4). Announcement of the State Council Tariff Commission on imposing additional tariffs on some imported goods originating from the United States. https://gss.mof.gov.cn/gzdt/zhengcefabu/202503/t20250304_3959228.htm. For more information, see this USDA GAIN report.