Trump’s Tariff Shifts Spark Global Retaliation and Uncertainty
New US tariffs, countermeasures, and reversals create a chaotic trade landscape
The blanket 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada announced by US President Donald Trump in early February took effect on March 4, 2025, as reported by CNN. Trump also doubled the new tariff on China, which is imposed on top of existing tariffs on Chinese goods, from 10% to 20%.
China and Canada quickly retaliated with tariffs on American goods. Canada announced a 25% tariff on US$20.7 billion of US goods, including on peanut butter, effective March 4. China announced its own retaliatory measures on March 4, including an additional 10% tariff on most US tree nuts, dried fruits, and peanut butter, among other agricultural products (see table below).
Shortly thereafter, Trump abruptly backtracked on some of the measures. On March 5, he granted a one-month reprieve on automotive tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The following day, he said he would suspend the 25% tariff on products traded under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, but implied that other tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products would be coming in April.
On March 12, the European Union announced countermeasures in response to Trump’s 25% tariff on European steel and aluminum, which had just come into effect. Firstly, the suspension of existing 2018 and 2020 countermeasures against the US will be allowed to lapse on April 1, whereupon 25% duties will come into effect on US peanut butter and dried cranberries. Secondly, the European Commission put forward a package of new countermeasures on US goods, which are expected to come into force by mid-April, after a public consultation open until March 26 as well as consultation with EU Member States. The list of US products that could be targeted by these measures includes in-shell and shelled almonds as well as crude peanut oil. The amount of the additional duties that will be charged under these new countermeasures was not announced.
At the time of this report, uncertainty reigned as businesses and trade partners scrambled to assess the evolving tariff landscape, with exemptions, retaliatory measures, and policy reversals unfolding rapidly.
| Nuts and dried fruits affected by China’s new additional 10% tariff on US goods, effective March 10, 2025 | |||
| Almonds, in-shell (080211) | Hazelnuts, in-shell (080221) | Pine nuts, shelled (080292) | Dates (080410) |
| Almonds, shelled (080212) | Hazelnuts, shelled (080222) | Pistachios, in-shell (080251) | Dried apricots (081310) |
| Brazil nuts, in-shell (080121) | Macadamias, in-shell (080261) | Pistachios, shelled (080252) | Cranberries (200893) |
| Brazil nuts, shelled (080122) | Macadamias, shelled (080262) | Walnuts, in-shell (080231) | Figs (080420) |
| Cashews, in-shell (080131) | Pecans, in-shell (08029910) | Walnuts, shelled (080232) | Dried grapes (080620) |
| Cashews, shelled (080132) | Pine nuts, in-shell (080291) | Peanut butter (20081130) | Prunes (081320) |
HS codes in parentheses. Source: Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China. (2025, March 4). Announcement of the State Council Tariff Commission on imposing additional tariffs on some imported goods originating from the United States. https://gss.mof.gov.cn/gzdt/zhengcefabu/202503/t20250304_3959228.htm. For more information, see this USDA GAIN report.
EU Concludes Public Consultation on Proposed Retaliatory Tariffs Against US
The INC submitted a statement against tariffs on almonds and took part in a meeting with EU officials
The European Union announced countermeasures on March 12 in response to US President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on European steel and aluminum, which had just come into effect. The European Commission proposed new countermeasures on US goods, which are expected to come into force by mid-April. The list of US products that could be targeted by these measures includes in-shell and shelled almonds. The amount of the additional duties that would be charged was not announced. The EU elicited stakeholder feedback on the proposed measures via a public consultation that closed on March 26. The INC submitted a position statement expressing opposition to the proposed tariffs on US almonds, arguing that the tariffs would be harmful to EU processors and manufacturers who rely heavily on US almond imports to make value-added food products (confectionary, marzipan, backed goods, snack bars, breakfast cereals, plant-based beverages, etc.), specialized health and nutrition products (protein supplements, gluten-free flours, etc.), and products for the pharma industry.
On March 25, the INC also participated in an online meeting with officials from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Trade (DG TRADE). Representing the units responsible for trade with the US and trade in agrifood products, the officials listened to arguments against the application of tariffs on US almonds. Convened by FRUCOM, the meeting was attended by representatives of companies in the nut and dried fruit sector as well as industry associations. The consensus position among the industry stakeholders was aligned with the INC’s position that the tariffs would be broadly harmful to EU companies across the value chain.
The EU’s package of countermeasures announced on March 12 also included allowing the suspension of existing 2018 and 2020 countermeasures against the US to lapse. These measures —which include 25% duties on US peanut butter and dried cranberries— were set to come into force on April 1. However, the EU has now decided to delay the implementation of the measures until mid-April, allowing extra time for negotiations. On March 20, European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič told a hearing at the European Parliament that the entry into force of these measures would be pushed back to mid-April. “We are now considering to align the timing of the two sets of EU countermeasures, so we can consult with Member States on both lists simultaneously,” said Šefčovič. “It also gives us extra time for negotiations to try to find a mutually agreeable resolution.” The European Commission later confirmed that the measures would take effect in mid-April, as reported by Reuters. This delay aligns the timing of the two tranches of countermeasures announced by the Commission on March 12.
India: Import Levies on US Almonds, Walnuts, and Cranberries May Be Lowered
Indian and American officials are in talks that could lead to the reduction or elimination of import duties on US almonds, walnuts, and cranberries, the Economic Times has reported. The two sides are seeking to reach a deal by the end of the year with the goal of reaching US$500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.
Argentina: Resolutions to Reduce Bureaucratic Hurdles in Fruit Trade
On February 11, 2025, Argentina’s Minister of Deregulation and State Transformation announced the implementation of two resolutions aimed at reducing bureaucratic hurdles in the fruit trade. Resolution 21/2025 simplifies the registration process for establishments involved in packing, storing, and processing fruits, with key changes including a unified, digital registration system and a shift to “acceptance at destination” for product verification. Resolution 22/2025 aims to ease the administrative burden in exporting fruits, including dried fruits and nuts, by offering greater flexibility in harvest timing, simplifying packaging requirements, and strengthening traceability to ensure compliance with international standards.
Indonesia: Chilean Walnuts Gain Market Access
Indonesia has confirmed the sanitary approval for the import of six new Chilean products, including shelled and in-shell walnuts, as reported by Chile Alimentos. The announcement was made by Chile’s Minister of Agriculture, along with the head of ProChile and representatives of other key organizations, including Chilenut.
Iran: Two-Month Export Ban on Dates
Iran has imposed a two-month export ban on dates, effective from February 24, 2025, according to the Tehran Times. This measure aims to stabilize domestic prices ahead of the holy month of Ramadan, a period of increased demand.
Kyrgyzstan: Partnership With Uzbek Exporter to Boost Nut and Dried Fruit Exports
As reported by the Times of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan has secured a trade agreement with EcoFruit, a leading Uzbek exporter of dried fruits, creating a pathway for regular food exports to Europe and the Persian Gulf. The products encompassed by the agreement include dried apricots, prunes, walnuts, and pistachios. EcoFruit also announced plans to open an office in Kyrgyzstan, indicating a commitment to long-term cooperation.
Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan: Free Trade Deal Comes Into Effect
The free trade deal between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan came into effect on February 25, 2025, eliminating customs duties on most goods produced in both countries, according to the Times of Central Asia.