EU-USA: Trade Deal Uncertain as Trump Issues—and Retracts—Tariff Threats Over Greenland
On January 17, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that he would impose a 10% tariff on goods entering the United States from eight European countries that oppose Trump’s efforts to gain control of Greenland, as reported by AP News. In his social media post, Trump stated that the tariff would apply to Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom as of February 1 and rise to 25% on June 1 if no deal was reached for the “Complete and Total purchase of Greenland” by the US. As of this report, Trump’s social media post has not been followed by any official communication from the White House confirming the policy change, and it is unclear whether the threatened tariffs would be added to existing duties.
The threat cast doubt on the future of the trade deal reached by the EU and the US six months ago, which was intended to provide stability and predictability for citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. Under that deal, the EU agreed to a 15% tariff on everything it sells to the US—significantly lower than the 30% rate threatened by Trump at the time—and 0% tariffs on US goods entering the Union. On January 21, the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee suspended work towards parliamentary ratification of the deal.
On the same day, after meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, Trump stated that he would not be imposing the threatened tariffs on February 1 after reaching the “framework” of a potential agreement on Greenland, according to the BBC.
EU-USA: EU Countermeasures on US Nuts and Dried Fruits May Take Effect February 7
Against the backdrop of escalating tensions over Greenland, the European Union is expected to decide in the coming days whether to allow the suspension of countermeasures against US imports to expire.
As background, in July 2025, in response to expansive US tariffs, the EU adopted countermeasures covering a broad range of US goods, including various nuts and dried fruits. Following the conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement in August 2025, the EU agreed to suspend these countermeasures for a six-month period. The suspension was explicitly made subject to review, depending on subsequent developments in EU-US trade relations.
In a press briefing on January 19, 2026, a European Commission spokesperson noted that the suspension of those countermeasures is due to lapse on February 6. Unless the Commission, in coordination with Member States, decides to extend the suspension via the usual comitology procedure, the countermeasures will take effect on February 7. The spokesperson added that no final decision has been made yet, and that consultations among EU leaders are continuing this week.
It was not clear, at the time of this report, how Trump’s retraction of the Greenland-related tariff threat on January 21 would affect the EU’s decision on whether or not to extend the suspension of the countermeasures.
EU: End-Use Customs Supervision of Duty Suspension for Dried Cranberries
The autonomous duty suspension for dried cranberries for the manufacture of products of food processing industries (excluding packing or pasteurization alone as processing), which applies since January 1, 2026, is subject to end-use customs supervision in accordance with Article 254 of Regulation (EU) No 952/2013.
Prior authorization from the customs authorities is required for the end-use procedure, as outlined in Article 211 of Regulation (EU) No 952/2013. The conditions for obtaining authorization are as follows:
- Establishment in the customs territory of the Union
- Necessary assurance of the proper conduct of the operations
- Provision of a guarantee
For further information about obtaining said authorization, see chapter 1 of the guidance document on special procedures published by the European Commission.
MERCOSUR-EU: Future of Trade Deal Uncertain After European Parliament Vote
On January 21, 2026, the European Parliament dealt a blow to the MERCOSUR-EU free trade deal by voting to refer the agreement for review by the EU’s top court. This setback comes just days after MERCOSUR and EU officials met for a formal signing ceremony and casts doubt on the future of the deal.
By a narrow majority—334 MEPs in favor, 324 against and 11 abstaining—the chamber voted to adopt a resolution asking for a legal opinion on the agreement from the European Court of Justice (ECJ). The legal basis of the EU-MERCOSUR partnership agreement (EMPA) and the interim trade agreement (ITA) will now be reviewed by the ECJ. The European Parliament will continue its examination of the texts, while awaiting the opinion of the court. Only then, Parliament will be able to vote to grant consent—or not—to the agreement.
This move could significantly delay the finalization of the deal. However, as noted by Reuters, the Commission could still seek to apply the agreement provisionally pending the court ruling and parliamentary approval.
USA: Supreme Court Expected to Rule on Trump’s IEEPA Tariffs
The US Supreme Court is at the center of a high-stakes legal battle over President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, many of which were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
The Trump administration invoked IEEPA, a statute historically used for narrow emergency economic sanctions, to justify broad trade tariffs—a move critics say overstepped his presidential authority. Lower courts have already ruled that IEEPA does not authorize such tariff powers because only the US Congress has the constitutional authority to tax or impose duties.
The case now before the Supreme Court will determine whether Trump’s IEEPA tariffs will remain in place. Despite expectations of a decision in early January, the Supreme Court has so far not issued a ruling, and no date has been set for the decision. For now, the IEEPA tariffs remain in effect.
If the tariffs are struck down, the US Treasury could potentially be on the hook for up to US$150 billion in refunds of duties. On January 2, US Customs and Border Protection issued an interim final rule mandating that, with limited exceptions, all refunds will be issued electronically via Automated Clearing House (ACH) transfers. As noted by Mondaq, this change effectively ends the use of paper checks, and any importer seeking a refund must be enrolled in the ACH Refund program.
USA: Trump Threatens Iran’s Trading Partners With 25% Tariff
On January 12, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on goods entering the United States, as reported by Reuters. In his social media post, Trump stated that the new tariff would take effect “immediately.” As of this report, however, the announcement has not been followed by any official communication from the White House confirming the policy change.