Iran: Hostilities Threaten Fertilizer Supplies; Food Exports Banned Until Further Notice
Shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf are raising concerns about global fertilizer supply. As noted by Forbes, the region is among the world’s most important suppliers of nitrogen fertilizer, accounting for between 40% and 50% of the 55 to 60 million metric tons of urea shipped by sea each year—and nearly all of those exports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. As reported by Reuters, the impact of tightening supply is already being felt. Urea export prices in the region have risen by around 40% since before the war, and key fertilizer production facilities in Qatar, India, Bangladesh and beyond have halted or reduced production significantly.
The conflict has also had direct implications for Iran’s agricultural sector. On March 12, 2026, the Iranian government banned the export of food and agricultural products, as reported by Tasnim, a semi-official news agency. The ban will remain in place until further notice.
USA: Trade Investigations Launched to Lay Groundwork for Future Tariffs
The United States has launched a series of trade investigations that could pave the way for future tariffs on imports from dozens of trading partners, as the Trump administration seeks legal mechanisms to sustain trade pressure beyond a temporary surcharge.
Earlier this month, the administration invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10% temporary global import surcharge for up to 150 days. This tariff can remain in place only for that limited period unless Congress approves an extension.
On March 12, 2026, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) launched investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a separate provision that allows the US to impose tariffs or other trade restrictions in response to unfair foreign trade practices.
One investigation will examine whether policies in certain economies contribute to “structural excess capacity and production” in manufacturing sectors. Another set of 60 investigations will assess whether governments have failed to take adequate action to prevent exports produced with forced labor. If the probes find that these practices burden US commerce, they could provide the legal basis for more targeted and potentially longer-lasting tariffs once the temporary surcharge expires.
The economies subject to the “structural excess capacity and production” probe are Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand and Viet Nam.
The economies targeted by the forced labor probe are Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Australia, the Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, the European Union, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Türkiye, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Venezuela and Viet Nam.
The USTR will be accepting public comments on these investigations until April 16, 2026.
For more information, see the fact sheets published by the USTR on the structural excess capacity and production and forced labor investigations.
USA: Announced 15% Global Baseline Tariff Remains Unimplemented
US President Donald Trump’s threat to raise the 10% global baseline tariff to 15% remains unimplemented more than one month after the announcement was issued.
As noted in an INC tariffs update in late February 2026, after the US Supreme Court invalidated most of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the administration moved quickly to introduce a temporary global import surcharge. A presidential proclamation imposed a 10% baseline tariff effective February 24, and Trump subsequently stated on social media that he intended to raise the rate to 15%.
In early March, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the increase was likely to be implemented sometime that week, signaling that formalization of the higher rate was imminent.
However, official guidance from US Customs and Border Protection continues to reference a 10% duty—the rate that has in fact been collected since February 24. As of this report, no formal measure implementing the 15% rate has yet been issued.
USA-India: Trade Deal Faces Uncertainty Amid New Trade Probe
According to a Reuters report citing unnamed Indian government officials, India may delay signing an interim trade deal with the US, originally expected in March, following the Trump administration’s launch of an investigation into “structural excess capacity and production” in 16 economies, including India. Reuters sources characterized the new probe as a potential pressure tactic, prompting a “wait-and-watch” approach while US tariff policy evolves. The Indian government has denied these reports, telling the Business Standard that bilateral engagement continues and that both sides remain committed to a mutually beneficial trade agreement.
USA-EU: Trade Deal Advances Through European Parliament
On March 19, 2026, the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee (INTA) adopted its position on two legislative proposals that would eliminate most tariffs on agricultural goods from the US.
The text endorsed by INTA includes an updated suspension clause, under which legislative work implementing tariff preferences on US products can be immediately suspended if the US imposes any tariff on the EU or one of its member states because of their foreign policy decisions. It also includes a sunrise clause, under which tariff preferences for US products would take effect only once the US effectively implements its commitments under the deal. Finally, the text states that before the regulation can take effect, the US must lower tariffs on EU products that contain less than 50% steel or aluminum from 50% to 15%.
The vote marked a step forward for the EU-US trade deal, which had been stalled since January when INTA suspended work towards ratification after threats by US President Donald Trump to impose new tariffs on European countries amid tensions over Greenland.
The full Parliament voted on the proposals on March 26, with a broad majority supporting both texts. Parliament will now begin negotiations with EU governments on the final shape of the legislation.
Australia-EU: Free Trade Agreement Negotiations Concluded
On March 24, 2026, Australia and the EU concluded negotiations on the Australia–European Union Free Trade Agreement. Both sides must now complete their respective domestic processes required for signature and entry into force. According to explainer documents published by the EU and by Australia, tariffs will be eliminated on almost 100% of EU exports to Australia, while 97.8% of Australia’s goods exported to the EU will enjoy duty-free treatment.
MERCOSUR-EU: Free Trade Deal to Apply Provisionally From May 1
The MERCOSUR-EU Interim Trade Agreement will apply provisionally from May 1, 2026. According to a statement released by the European Commission on March 23, the agreement will take effect between the EU and all MERCOSUR countries that have completed their ratification procedures and notified the EU before the end of March.
USA-Mexico: Bilateral Discussions to Prepare Joint Review of USMCA
The text of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) requires the parties to meet on the sixth anniversary of the entry into force—July 1, 2026—to conduct a formal joint review and decide whether to extend the term of the agreement for another 16 years. The US and Mexico have kicked off technical discussions in advance of the joint review. Reuters has reported that a bilateral meeting on the joint review has also taken place between US and Canadian officials.