The information contained herein was prepared between late September and October 2025.
USA. As of this report, the industry was facing uncertainty over the size of this year’s crop. The USDA NASS Objective Estimate projected a 3.0 billion lbs. (1.36 million metric ton) crop. However, according to the September Almond Board of California Position Report, the second report of the 2025/26 crop year (August 2025-July 2026), receipts totaled 992 million lbs. (approx. 450,000 metric tons) of kernel weight, down 4% year-on-year. Reports from growers and handlers indicated lighter yields, smaller kernels, and lower kernel recovery rates, particularly in early varieties like Nonpareil, which make up about 40% of the crop. These factors have fueled skepticism about the 3.0 B lbs. target, with consensus pointing towards a crop in the 2.55–2.80 B lbs. range (1.16-1.27 M MT). As harvest progressed into later varieties, overall quality was expected to be good.
Shipments 2024/25 of 2.646 billion lbs. (approx. 1.2 M MT) were the third largest in history, down 1.7% from 2023/24. Domestic shipments in 2024/25 totaled 671 million lbs. (approx. 305,000 MT) and were down 7.8% from the previous year. 2024/25 Exports were the second largest ever at 1.975 billion lbs. (approx. 896,000 MT), up slightly over 2023/24. India continues as the largest export destination setting a new record at 423 million lbs. (approx. 192,000 MT). Even while exports to the Asia-Pacific region were flat to 2023/24, India outperformed with shipments being up 6% year-over-year. Shipment totals to Europe in 2024/25 were 651 million lbs. (approx. 295,000 MT), up 1% from the year prior. Middle East/Africa exports were down slightly (-3%) at 432 million lbs. (approx. 196,000 MT).
Australia. As reported by the Almond Board of Australia, the 2025/26 crop is expected to fall below pre-harvest estimates. This figure will be verified before the end of the year, but feedback from processors suggest it could be 10-15% down on the 155,500 MT cited in the updated table.
Demand for Australian almonds continues along the trajectory of last year’s record sales of nearly 170,000 MT, and with strong buying interest from markets such as China, India, and Türkiye, another low carry-out is expected.
Spain & Portugal. According to industry sources, the 2025 harvest in both regions is expected to be lower than initially anticipated. In Spain, while the national associations’ July 2025 forecast placed production at around 125,700 MT, more recent assessments point to an uneven outlook, with regional disparities. Based on updated reports, the overall crop was, as of this report, forecasted between 100,000 and 110,000 MT. In the south, particularly Extremadura and Andalucía, yields were falling short of expectations and volumes were below initial projections. Conditions in the Ebro Valley presented a more positive output. However, this region has also faced repeated weather events, including strong winds, heavy rainfall, and hailstorms associated with storm Gabrielle, which have disrupted the normal course of harvesting. In central Spain, the harvest appeared in line with expectations. Meanwhile, in the Mediterranean coastal dryland areas, yields were only average.
The Portuguese crop was also projected to turn out lower than expected due to adverse weather conditions. During the critical bloom period in March, more than a month of persistent rain and strong winds severely hampered pollination and caused significant flower and fruit drop. The prolonged wet conditions also prevented timely field treatments, fostering fungal diseases, resulting in an overall output below earlier expectations.
In terms of quality, the regional crop is good, with better calibers than last year and low share of halves and pieces. At the time of reporting, supply was being retained, which has driven in-shell prices to high levels. Availability of kernel was limited.
