By the end of last year, the Brazil nut market had entered a phase of volatility, driven primarily by tightening raw material availability following last season’s short crop, with currency dynamics adding an additional layer of uncertainty. On the demand side, interest for near-term shipments remained solid, but the outlook for Q2 onward was less certain and largely hinging on retail-driven demand. Regarding supply prospects, expectations at this stage point towards an average harvest in both volume and grade profile.
The information contained herein was prepared between January and February 2026.
Industry sources reported that, by the end of last year, the Brazil nut market had entered a phase of volatility, driven primarily by tightening raw material availability following last season’s short crop.
The early closure of processing facilities last season resulted in strong demand for 2026 crop early volumes, pushing raw material prices sharply higher. Processors, eager to restart operations, entered the new season with active procurement strategies. At the same time, while availability in user markets had diminished significantly, certain buyers who keep Brazil nuts listed in their product lines sought early cover, adding further pressure to the start of the season. Additionally, initial deliveries from the 2026 crop progressed more slowly than anticipated, tightening the local market.
Currency dynamics added an additional layer of uncertainty. With Bolivia’s new president elected last October and a new administration in place since November, the boliviano (BOB) appreciated, limiting the competitiveness of USD denominated exports and prompting some sellers to pause forward commitments.
On the demand side, interest for near-term shipments remained solid, but the outlook for Q2 onward was, at the time of this report, less certain and largely hinging on retail-driven demand. Ultimately, the capacity of consumer markets to absorb the prevailing elevated prices will determine how demand evolves later in the year. Mid-term demand trends will depend on whether traditional buyers—some of whom have stepped away from Brazil nuts, echoing the situation in 2017—return to the category. Meanwhile, growing interest from Asian markets is providing some momentum on the demand side.
Regarding supply prospects, although it is still too early to offer an accurate assessment of the 2026 crop, expectations at this stage point towards an average harvest in both volume and grade profile, which could allow pricing to ease.
