Northern Hemisphere 2025/26 crops have been reassessed upwards since the last update, while Southern Hemisphere crops are estimated 13% up from the previous season, led by Tanzania. Overall, the 2025/26 crop, at approximately 6.4 million metric tons of raw cashew nuts, marks a historical high. Demand for raw cashew nuts remained firm throughout 2025. The overall Northern Hemisphere 2026 crop outlook looks positive. Late-2025 weather disruptions in Cambodia normalized ahead of flowering, and weather conditions in Ghana stabilized following early rains.
The information contained herein was prepared between late January and February 2026.
With the Northern Hemisphere 2025/26 crops largely delivered by the end of 2025, most estimates have been reassessed upwards since the last update. Southern Hemisphere crops are estimated 13% up from the previous season, led by Tanzania, up over 18% from 2024/25. In Brazil, while the 2024/25 crop delivered the strongest output in recent years, the 2025/26 crop has been unexpectedly weak. Overall, the 2025/26 crop, at approximately 6.4 million metric tons of raw cashew nuts, marks a historical high.
Demand for RCN remained firm throughout 2025, supported by higher kernel exports from Viet Nam and increased consumption in India compared with the previous year. Cambodia remained Viet Nam’s key RCN supplier, followed by Côte d’Ivoire. The East African crop began arriving in Viet Nam and India in early 2026 and was expected to cover processing requirements for Q1, until the 2026 NH crop arrivals come onto the market.
Year-to-date through December 2025, Vietnamese exports of kernels were up by around 3% year on year, mainly driven by stronger demand from China, Western Asia, and the EU, while domestic demand in India strengthened during the festival season. Supported by a stronger euro, European markets showed forward-buying interest. In the USA, the elimination of tariffs on raw cashew kernels strengthened demand and drove spot prices higher. However, moving forward to the beginning of 2026, in both the USA and EU, forward purchasing has been relatively subdued, as buyers were holding off on coverage until new crop arrivals provide greater clarity on the 2026 NH crop outlook. Demand in Asia softened, reflecting reduced demand from China following the completion of Chinese New Year coverage. In contrast, Japan and Korea remained active, securing volumes to meet Q1 and Q2 requirements.
As of this report, the overall NH 2026 crop outlook looks positive. As per the African Cashew Alliance, some weather disruptions were observed in Cambodia in late 2025, but they have normalized ahead of flowering. Other industry sources reported that early rains in Ghana impacted initial quality levels, but conditions have since stabilized, and an improvement was anticipated. Shipments from West Africa were expected to start around mid-February.
