China’s 2025 crop is estimated at 105,000 metric tons at 10% nut-in-shell moisture content (98,000 MT at 3.5%), while its 2026 crop is expected to rise by 10-20%. Following a disappointing 2025 crop, South Africa’s outlook for 2026 is cautiously positive, with a preliminary forecast of 95,000 MT at 1.5% NIS moisture content (96,700 MT at 3.5%). Australia’s 2026 crop is predicted to reach 59,080 MT at 3.5% NIS moisture content, representing a strong recovery on the 2025 crop.
The information contained herein was prepared between late January and early March 2026.
China. According to the China Chamber of Commerce, the 2025 crop is estimated at 105,000 metric tons at 10% nut-in-shell moisture content (98,000 MT at 3.5%). Yunnan accounted for 76% of the total crop, followed by Guangxi (19%) and Guangdong (5%). Favorable rainfall ahead of bloom and during nut set supported development, no major flooding occurred during harvest, and improved farm management further boosted output. Newly introduced, well‑adapted varieties have also begun bearing. Looking ahead, the 2026 crop is expected to rise by 10-20%, assuming good growing conditions.
South Africa. As reported by Macadamias South Africa (SAMAC), the 2026 crop is preliminarily forecasted at 95,000 MT at 1.5% NIS moisture content (96,700 MT at 3.5%).
Following a disappointing 2025 crop, the outlook for 2026 is cautiously positive, given favorable weather conditions. Furthermore, a number of younger orchards are now entering commercial production, which is expected to contribute to moderate overall crop growth despite lower crop inputs on the back of lower prices. However, at the time of writing, it was still early in the cycle, so an accurate estimate was not yet possible.
Australia. As per the Australian Macadamia Society, the 2026 crop is predicted to reach 59,080 MT at 3.5% NIS moisture content, according to a climate-based scientific model developed by the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries.
The forecast represents a strong recovery on the 2025 crop, which followed one of the most challenging seasons on record. Early indicators are encouraging, with improved growing conditions and younger plantings moving into their bearing and full production stages.
