In China, a lower 2025/26 crop and carryover, and robust early-season demand, drove prices up 20-30% year on year. September-December kernel shipments surged 35% to 80,015 metric tons, while in-shell declined 13% to 128,170 MT. In USA, the 2025/26 season began with one of the lowest carry‑in inventories in years. The January shipment report showed receipts in excess of 807,300 short tons, in-shell basis (732,400 MT). In Chile, with adequate chill accumulation and rainfall within normal ranges, the upcoming crop is forecasted at around 170,000 MT.
The information contained herein was prepared between late January and February 2026.
China. A lower 2025/26 crop and carryover, and robust early-season demand, drove prices up 20-30% year on year. September-December kernel shipments surged 35% to 80,015 metric tons, while in-shell declined 13% to 128,170 MT, keeping the in-shell equivalent 9.6% above last season.
While prices remained firm ahead of the Spring Festival, exporters expected a post‑holiday softening, influenced by the local market—over 80% of total demand.
USA. According to California Walnuts, the 2025/26 season began with one of the lowest carry‑in inventories in years, largely sold out when the new crop started shipping. Reports indicated larger sizes and higher edible meat yields, key for in-shell buyers. The January shipment report showed receipts in excess of 807,300 short tons, in-shell basis (732,400 MT), 13.7% above the USDA NASS estimate.
December in-shell sales hit near-record levels in destinations such as Türkiye and the UAE. Core kernel markets also showed strong gains, including Germany (+75%), the Netherlands (+47%) and the UAE (+50%), notably a non-traditional importer of kernels.
Chile. As of December 31, 2025, exports exceeded 169,600 MT in-shell equivalent, with additional shipments expected ahead of the 2026 harvest. With adequate chill accumulation and rainfall within normal ranges, the upcoming crop is forecasted at around 170,000 MT.
