North America Pecans
While the 2021 US crop is expected to be similar in size to the 2020 crop, severe drought conditions in Mexico reduced their projected crop by 30%. Assuming the figures remain as projected, this would be the first time since 2013 that the US could out-produce Mexico.
With North American pecan consumption expected to exceed 272,158 metric tons, supplies are very tight, especially for larger halves. Based on the most recent cold storage figures and American Pecan Council reported commitments, the tight supply situation has left most US shellers unable to quote halves. Further, the supply of good-quality pieces is also dwindling. The foodservice industry, severely affected by the pandemic, continues to rebound which is expected to put additional pressure on an already tight supply situation.
According to the final US Customs figures, 2020 crop imports were down 12.1%, the lowest since 2016. However, even with the continued trade tensions between the US and China, US overall pecan exports were up approximately 11% from a year ago and up approximately 65% to China.
South Africa Pecans
Estimated at 16,500 MT, in-shell basis, from which about 15,000 MT are bounded for export, the 2021 crop has turned out to be considerably lower than initially anticipated. This is largely attributed to a very cold spell during flowering in 2020.
The shortage of containers and the various problems experienced at the ports resulted in shipping bottlenecks. However, it is expected that the shipping situation will improve and autumn’s demand in China will be met in time.
Brazil Pecans
Harvest 2021 concluded last September hitting a historical record of 6,000 MT in-shell basis. Weather conditions were favorable, with rainfall well distributed throughout the growing cycle, especially in the largest producer state, Rio Grande do Sul. For the next season, the crop is forecasted down to 4,000 MT, mainly due to La Niña, which is anticipated to bring drought to southern Brazil, where most of the pecan orchards are located.
Although the domestic market is somewhat retracted by the pandemic, exports are growing, especially in-shell. In the last four years, more than 700,000 pecan trees have been fielded.
China Pecans
The harvest started in September and the current estimation is 100% up from the early forecast. The growing area currently adds to over 80,000 hectares, with many 8-10 years old trees coming into production.
Australia Pecans
The 2021 crop harvest started later than usual this year, following an autumn warm spell during final maturity. Now, after a rain-disrupted harvest, the best crop-set in many years is in-the-barn. The in-shell yield has produced full and heavy pecan halves, which have clearly benefited from a perfect (mild) summer growing season. This was Australia’s best season after 3-4 years of severe drought conditions.