Northern Hemisphere Crops

As reported by industry sources, weather conditions (La Niña) caused visible negative impact on the crop yields as well as on the kernel outturn specially in India, Vietnam and Cambodia.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology latest update, La Niña established again for the 2022/2023 boreal winter. Weather models indicate that this La Niña event may peak during Q4 2022 and return to neutral conditions early in 2023; and may affect the ongoing harvest in the southern hemisphere (Brazil and Indonesia in particular), as well as the upcoming harvest in the Northern hemisphere.

Southern Hemisphere Crops

Crop progress looked good at the time of this report. Tanzania new crop shipments are set to start as of last week of October if all goes as per schedule. Due to La Niña, both Brazil and Indonesia harvested lower crops last season, and the impact on the ongoing harvest is yet to be seen. According to industry sources, in Brazil, the 2022 harvest has started very late, and the outlook was poor. The rains this year were very good, but went on beyond the normal period, and this seems to have adversely affected the crop.

Despite La Niña, East Africa (Tanzania and Mozambique) harvested very good crops last season, it remains to be seen whether this season’s crops will be as good.

RCN and Kernel Demand

India RCN import demand has been robust for this year. By early September, Vietnam processors RCN coverage appeared to be more sluggish than expected, but anticipated to improve once kernel demand picks up from USA, EU, and China. The main challenge remains how consumers will (continue) to react/act with their spending power: Will they continue their diet patterns of healthy snacking or move into cheaper alternatives?


There is some relief both in shipping costs and execution. However, several main arrival ports continue to have congestions and afloat periods continue to be extended.

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