COVID-19 Update: February 10, 2021

One year after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared public health emergency of international concern over the outbreak of the COVID-19, the pandemic has already infected more than 105 million people all over the world, including nearly 2.4 million deaths. The worst-hit countries are the United States, India and Brazil, followed by Russia, the UK and France. By regions, there are over 46 million confirmed cases in the Americas, more than 35 million in Europe, over 13 million confirmed cases in South-East Asia, and 2.6 million in Africa. The number of vaccinations is rapidly increasing. So far, more than 131 million people have been vaccinated across 73 countries. In the United States, at the current rate of vaccinations, it is expected that 75% of the US population will be covered with a two-dose vaccine within 10 months.
 
The Davos Agenda took place from January 25 to 29, 2021. The World Economic Forum's January meetings brought together leaders from governments, businesses and civil society to collaborate on solutions to the most pressing issues of the day. The top impacts from the Davos Agenda included the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and supporting social entrepreneurs fighting COVID-19, among other issues.

About a year ago, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared public health emergency of international concern over the outbreak of the COVID-19 –the highest level of alarm under international law. WHO Director-General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom highlighted that vaccines cannot exacerbate inequalities. Dr. Adhanom also challenged government and industry leaders to ensure, during the first 100 days of 2021, the ongoing vaccination of health workers and elder people.
 
Dr. Adhanom also remarked that: “Globally, the number of vaccinations has now overtaken the number of reported infections. But more than three-quarters of those vaccinations are in just 10 countries that account for almost 60% of global GDP. Around 130 countries, with 2.5 billion people, are yet to administer a single dose.” WHO COVAX, the vaccines pillar of the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator, published the forecast for the distribution of vaccines to participating countries. However, Dr. Adhanom warned that countries need to share doses when they finished vaccinating health workers and elder people, and also a greater production of vaccines is needed.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated the World Economic Outlook. It highlights the fact that recent vaccine approvals have raised hopes of a turnaround in the pandemic. However, the surge of new variants of the COVID-19 as well as new waves of the pandemic, pose concerns for the outlook. Under this uncertain scenario, the global economy is projected to grow 5.5% in 2021 (up 0.3% compared to the previous forecast) and 4.2% in 2022. These predictions reflect expectations of a vaccine-powered strengthening of activity later in 2021 and additional policy support in a few large economies.
 
The projected growth recovery this year follows a severe collapse in 2020 that has had acute adverse impacts on women, youth, the poor, the informally employed, and those who work in contact-intensive sectors. The global growth contraction for 2020 is estimated at 3.5%, 0.9 percentage point higher than projected in the previous forecast. However, the recovery will vary significantly across countries, depending on access to medical intervention and effectiveness of policy support, among other factors.
 
The IMF recommends policy actions to ensure effective support until the recovery is firmly underway, as well as strong multilateral cooperation to bring the pandemic under control everywhere.
 
Some of the IMF projections for 2021 include a 5.1% GDP growth in the US, 4.2% in the Euro Area, 3.1% in Japan, 8.1% growth in China, and 11.5% in India, among others.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) Deputy Director-General, Alan Wolff urged WTO ministers to make 2021 “a year of substantial accomplishments” by taking action on health, sustainability issues, and the joint statement initiatives. He also emphasized that cooperation on trade can accelerate access to vaccines, and called for immediate action on trade and health. 

Australia reopened the travel bubble with New Zealand, after no new cases were found. However, new screening measures were added. The travel bubble between the two countries does not require travelers to quarantine for 14 days, because arrivals from New Zealand are judged to be sufficiently low risk given the strong public health response of the neighboring country. However, Australia would require the screening of travelers from New Zealand before and after flights until February 9.
 
On February 1, Perth entered into a five-day strict lockdown, affecting 2 million people, after a  new case of COVID-19 was found. Australia managed to largely contain the COVID-19 pandemic, by applying strict public health measures including lockdowns and border controls. Australia’s vaccination campaign is expected to begin in February.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) issued the latest Economic Survey of Chile. According to the OECD, Chile plunged into a recession by the double shock of the 2019 social protests and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Sound public finances enabled stimulus actions to support the economy. When the health crisis is under control, and the recovery underway, the reforms need to be focused on boosting jobs, and making growth work for all. The report projects a 4.2% GDP growth in 2021, and 3% in 2022. However, Chile’s GDP dropped about 6% in 2020. The OECD warns that social conflict and political uncertainty could decrease the pace of recovery. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping opened the Davos’ Agenda of the World Economic Forum, which took place from January 25 to 29, in virtual format because of the pandemic. The headline of this edition was “A crucial Year to Rebuild Trust”. President Xi said “We once again have a chance to rebuild,”, calling for rethinking the economic model in the light of a pandemic that has worsened inequality worldwide. He also said that “Covid-19 has delivered the final blow” to the post-war model where free markets and limited government produced prosperity and progress that now is “no longer sustainable, environmentally or socially.”

On January 29, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) approved AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine was developed in conjunction with researchers at the University of Oxford.
 
Despite certain delays in deliveries of vaccines, the EU aims to vaccinate 70% of adults by late summer. Until now, more than 12 million people of the EU’s 446 million population have received at least a first dose. 18 million vaccine doses have already been delivered to the EU.
 
The European Council reviewed the list of third countries for which Member States should gradually lift restrictions on non-essential travel. Based on the criteria and conditions set out in the recommendation, from January 28, Member States should gradually lift the travel restrictions at the external borders for residents of the following third countries: Australia, New Zealand, Rwanda, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and China, subject to confirmation of reciprocity. The criteria covers the epidemiological situation and containment measures, including physical distancing, as well as economic and social considerations. Schengen associated countries (Iceland, Lichtenstein, Norway, Switzerland) also take part in this recommendation.

In addition to this, on February 1, the European Council updated the recommendations on travel restrictions from third countries into the EU. These recommendations include: 1) less than 25 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the last 14 days; 2) a stable or decreasing trend of new cases over this period, compared to the previous 14 days; 3) more than 300 tests per 100,000 inhabitants in the previous 7 days, if the data is available; 4) not more than 4% positive tests among all COVID-19 tests carried out in the previous 7 days, if the data is available; and 5) the nature of the virus in a country, in particular, if new variants have been detected.

In addition, the overall response to COVID-19 may be taken into account, in particular available information on aspects such as surveillance, contact tracing, and containment, among others. However, in case the public health situation worsens, travel restrictions may be rapidly reintroduced for non-essential travel. In the same circumstances, Member States may also limit temporarily the categories of essential travelers.

Member states should require people traveling for any essential or non-essential reason, with the exception of transport and frontier workers, to have a negative PCR test taken at the earliest 72 hours before departure. They may be required to self-isolate for a period of up to 14 days, as well as further COVID-19 testing as needed during the same period.

The European Council updated the recommendations on measures affecting free movement in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a new color (dark red) added to the existing categories of green, orange, red and grey in the weekly map published by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). This color will apply to areas where the virus is circulating at very high levels, including more infectious variants. These are defined as areas where the 14-day cumulative COVID-19 case notification rate is 500 per 100,000 people or more. Member States should discourage non-essential travel to red and dark red areas. In addition to this, Member States should require a prior COVID-19 negative test for arrivals as well as mandatory quarantines to people traveling from dark red areas.
 
On February 3, the European Council’s Permanent Representatives Committee (Coreper)  approved a negotiating mandate for renewing temporary measures to help transport operators and citizens who are unable to fulfill certain administrative requirements because of COVID-19 measures taken in the Member States. The proposal extends the possibility of temporarily prolonging the validity of specific certificates, licenses and authorizations in the areas of road, rail and inland waterways transport as well as maritime security. This applies, for instance, to driving licenses, roadworthiness tests for motor vehicles and boat-masters' certificates. It follows on from similar rules adopted in May 2020.
 
The European Council adopted a mandate on new temporary rules to help air carriers cope with the drastic decline in air traffic, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is aimed to avoid companies operating empty flights. Therefore, under the general EU airport slot requirements, airlines must use at least 80% of their take-off and landing slots in order to keep them the following year. The Council text grants airlines the possibility to return 50% of their slot series but expects them to use at least 50% of the remaining slots.
 
The European Commission obliges that exports of COVID-19 vaccines need to be authorized by Member States until the end of March 2021. This measure represents an effort to ensure transparency and timely access to COVID-19 vaccines to EU citizens. 

Belgium closed restaurants and bars indefinitely in order to stop the spread of COVID-19. The food and drink sector asked for the reopening on March 1, or March 15, at the latest. If restaurants remain closed for longer, the economic damage would be inevitable. The sector also claims that the reopening in June last year had little impact on the number of new infections.
 
The lockdown measures have been extended until April 1, and health experts excluded the possibility of an earlier reopening of the hospitality sector. These measures include curfews, the obligation to telework, the ban of gathering as well as the closure of bars and restaurants. The Consultation Committee, which could examine the relaxing of the measures, is expected to meet on February 26. 

The French Labor Ministry’s Department announced that the number of unemployed people in France rose by 7.5% in 2021, despite a 2.7% drop during the fourth quarter of 2020. The fall in the unemployment rate during the last quarter of 2020 could be explained by the state’s renewal of guaranteed loans and its coverage of the partial activity of employees. These subsidies help to maintain jobs and avoid the closure of certain companies.
 
The public health situation in the country is quite stable, as the infection rate has not increased significantly over the past two weeks, despite hospitals being nearly overwhelmed. For this reason, a national lockdown is not in the government plans. It is expected that all adults in France will be vaccinated by the end of summer. The AstraZeneca vaccine started to be distributed on February 6, to be delivered to health professionals and people aged 50-64.

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that the country is expected to have 10 million people vaccinated against COVID-19 by the end of March. Merkel also said that Germany would be able to offer its adult population a jab by the end of summer.
 
Germany is planning to ban almost all international air travel, in order to stop the spread of the new variants of the virus. However, Chancellor Merkel is opposed to banning all travel, and has asked to halt tourism if the pandemic continues to spread.

Greece extended non-essential travel restrictions for domestic flights until February 8. Only essential airports are allowed essential domestic flights only, including traveling for health issues, for businesses or for family reasons, among others. International travelers are subject to a mandatory stay-at-home order for 7 days. In addition, passengers need to take a rapid test upon arrival, and if positive, the quarantine will be 14 days. 

COVID-19 related restrictions were eased in Italy, after severe curbs over the new year holidays. Two-thirds of Italy was declared as a “yellow zone” allowing bars and restaurants to remain open, not only for delivery or take-away. 

Spain and Portugal agreed to reintroduce border controls until February 10, to stop the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Entry and exit in Spain through its internal land border with Portugal could be permitted only through authorized passages.
 
The region of Madrid relaxed COVID-19 restrictions from February 5. Gatherings of up to six people are allowed at outdoor restaurants, up from the current limit of four. However, the hospitality industry closes at 9.00 pm. Take away and delivery services can be ordered until midnight.
 
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain hit the labor market hard, especially for the services, tourism, hotel, restaurant and catering sectors. The unemployment rate was 16.13% in January, and there are over 700,000 people affected by a temporary lay-off scheme.

From January 26 until February 14, Portugal suspended all flights to and from Brazil. The Government justifies this suspension of flights with the evolution of the epidemiological situation worldwide, the increase of COVID-19 cases in Portugal and the detection of new strains of the virus.
 
Portugal also banned outbound travel by Portuguese citizens for two weeks, except for certain cases. Restriction measures such as the closure of non-essential businesses and the ban on movement between municipalities at weekends remain in place.
 
The health system is almost overwhelmed, with overcrowded intensive care units, triage tents outside clinics and high death rates.

The Dutch government plans to extend the nationwide lockdown until March 2. Only elementary schools and daycares were set to reopen on February 8. The country has been in strict lockdown since mid-December, despite growing calls for the easing of the restrictions.

India announced its budget for the fiscal year starting in April, which includes more spending to recover from the COVID-19 recession. The budget contains increased spending on education, hospitals, roads and other infrastructure.
 
A year after the COVID-19 was first found in the country, the number of new cases is declining, despite being the second worst-hit country, after the US. The vaccination campaign started in mid-January, and it is expected that 300 million people will be immunized by July-August.
 
According to a recent USDA GAIN report, Cochin port handled 3.2 million tons of cargo in December 2020, representing an 11% increase compared to the same period of the previous year. This recovery is expected to help the port financially, after significant losses due to the pandemic in 2020. Indian Railways increased its rail services at Mumbai Port. Since the start of the pandemic, the use of freight rail significantly expanded, as truck movements had been restricted due to lockdown measures.

Japan extended the state of emergency related to the COVID-19 pandemic until March 7, a month after it was originally planned.
 
COVID-19 impacts on food distribution were highlighted in a USDA GAIN report issued on January 25. Japan declared a new 30-day state of emergency until February 7, which was extended until March 7, in response to a third wave of COVID-19 infections. Business travel, which was temporarily allowed for 11 countries and regions, has also been halted until February 7. Additionally, the programs to support domestic tourism have been suspended, with a negative impact on hotel, restaurant, and institutional sales. Restaurant bankruptcies reached a record high in 2020. However, monthly year-on-year retail sales at supermarkets continue to be stronger. In 2020, total supermarket sales were up for the first time in five years. 

South Africa is expected to receive extra 20 million COVID-19 vaccines. The extra doses would potentially raise the total supply above 40 million. South Africa has already secured about 12 million doses from the WHO COVAX vaccine distribution scheme, 12 million from an African Union arrangement, and 9 million from Johnson & Johnson. In addition to this, the country approved the AstraZeneca vaccine for emergency use, with government plans to start offering the first 1.5 million doses of it to health workers from next week. However, a preliminary study led by the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg found that the AZ vaccine was not sufficiently effective against mild and moderate symptoms of the reportedly more contagious South African variant, also known as B.1.351 (or 501.V2).

Following the release of these results, South Africa announced that it would temporarily suspend the planned rollout of the AZ vaccine. The government later published a factsheet saying that the Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine instead would be offered from mid-February.

According to government figures, nearly 4 million confirmed cases have been reported in the UK. More than 112,000 people died. More than 12 million have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. The number of new cases reached a record level in January, but the number of new cases is declining in February, due to strict mitigation measures in place across the country.
 
UK residents arriving to the country from hotspot countries are required to quarantine for ten days at hotels, following concerns about new strains of the virus. The measures apply to people coming from most of South America, Southern Africa and Portugal, among others. 

January has been the deadliest month of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, with more than 95,000 deaths. However, new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are declining as the vaccine roll out continues through the country.
 
US President Joe Biden renewed the COVID-19 travel ban on most non-US citizens who have recently been in the EU, the UK, Brazil and South Africa, due to the new COVID-19 strains. The new restrictions imposed in the US include tightened mask-wearing rules and mandatory quarantine for inbound travelers.
 
The U.S. Department of Agriculture temporarily suspended past-due debt collection, foreclosures and other activities on farm loans due to the pandemic.
 
 
The information above is a review of actions the INC has compiled from government sources, international organizations and press media. This news article is not intended to be exhaustive and it does not reflect the opinions of the INC. While the publishers believe that all information contained in this publication was correct at the time of publishing, they can accept no liability for any inaccuracies that may appear or loss suffered directly or indirectly by any reader as a result of any advertisement, editorial, photographs or other materials published in this news article.