COVID-19 Update: November 12, 2020

The worst hit regions are the Americas, with over 21.7 million cases, Europe, with over 13.3 million, and South-East Asia, with over 9.5 million confirmed cases. The US, India and Brazil are the countries with more cases at the moment. Many European countries announced stricter restrictions, in order to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, as winter season approaches. Belgium, France, Germany, Greece and the UK, among others, announced lockdown measures. New contagions in the US are spreading at record levels. However, several countries reported fewer new cases, such as Argentina, India, Ireland, Philippines, Thailand and South Africa, among others.

Despite the rapid increase of new cases, there are some advances regarding possible vaccines and interventions aimed to fight the disease. For example, a recent review, published in the European Journal of Nutrition (1), indicates that it is known that the virus can affect several tissues and can progress to a respiratory failure in severe cases. To prevent the progression and minimize all the damage, the immune system must be in its integrity. A healthy nutritional status is fundamental to immunological protection and a good response to the virus. 

The World Health Organization (WHO) Director General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom highlighted that while many countries have brought COVID-19 under control, the number of new cases in some European and North American countries continues to spike. In some regions, new cases grow exponentially and hospitals reach full capacity, which is a risk to both patients and health workers. The WHO encourages countries to invest again in the basics, so that restriction measures can be lifted safely and governments can hopefully avoid having to take these measures again.
 
The Emergency Committee on COVID-19 met on October 29, with the aim to review the situation and progress made. They advised that the pandemic still constitutes a global public health emergency, and urged a focus on response efforts based on the lessons already learned and strong science. The Committee provided targeted advice for WHO and countries to focus on in the coming months. It was emphasized the importance of evidence-informed, risk-based and coherent measures related to international traffic, surveillance and contract tracing efforts, maintaining essential health services and preparing plans for future COVID-19 vaccines. The Committee also urged countries to avoid politicization of the pandemic response, seen as a major detriment to global efforts.
 
The WHO World Health Assembly (WHA), the decision-making body of WHO, takes place virtually from November 9-14, 2020. As a preparation for the meeting, the WHO shared three messages: 1) COVID-19 can be beaten with science, solutions and solidarity, 2) the COVID-19 pandemic is a reminder that health is the foundation of social, economic and political stability, and 3) there is an urge to prepare for the next pandemic.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued the Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, which projects a 3% contraction of economic activity for 2020, but a 3.1% recovery in 2021. This outlook is subject to uncertainty, due to the fact that the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic is still unknown, and it is also subject to the availability of external financial support and the development of an effective vaccine. The outlook also highlights that, despite of the effects of the crisis, the potential of the region and the resourcefulness of its people remain intact. The areas of revenue mobilization, digitalization, trade integration, competition, transparency and governance, and climate-change mitigation require priority reforms.
 
The IMF also issued the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, which highlights that the region responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with stringent measures in order to mitigate the spread of the disease. However, its impact continue to face a difficult an uncertain environment. The immediate priorities for the region are: 1) containing the health crisis, 2) cushioning income losses, and 3) expanding social spending. Governments must address recovery and strengthen inclusion.

In remarks delivered to the International Grains Trade Coalition on November 3, the World Trade Organization (WTO) Deputy Director-General, Alan Wolff said the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the critical need for governments to work not only with each other but with business and wider civil society to ensure recovery. Many WTO Members joined forces and showed readiness to: 1) promote international co-operation, 2) facilitate information exchange to mitigate supply chain disruptions, and 3) safeguard global food security through open, predictable and transparent trade.
 
The WTO efforts to improve current market and regulatory environment for agri-food products are the following:
 
First, WTO Members are in the process of updating current WTO rules as they relate to agriculture to meet current and future challenges. In this regard, the negotiations aim to: 1) substantially reduce trade-distorting support, 2) improve disciplines on export restrictions, 3) enhance market access opportunities, and 4) further improve export competition rules.
 
Second, WTO bodies and the Standards and Trade Development Facility (STDF) routinely examine relevant trade of grains and oilseeds, such as progress in adopting e-phyto certification; and the digitalization of customs procedures. 

The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) issued a report on the employment situation in OECD countries during the second quarter of the year. The employment rate, which is the share of population in the working-age with jobs, fell by 4%, to 64.6%, which represents 34 million less employed people than the first quarter of 2020. In Canada and the US, the employment rates dropped by 8.5 percentage points (to 64.7%) and 8.9 percentage points (to 62.5%) respectively in the second quarter. In the euro area, the employment rate decreased by 1.9 percentage points, to 66.2% in the second quarter of 2020, with decreases of 3.0 percentage points or more in Estonia, Ireland and Spain.

On October 31, Australia recorded no new local COVID-19 cases for the first time since June 9. In addition to this, the number of new infections in Victoria, one of the hardest hit states, had been in single digits since October 13. However, on November 3, Australia reported one locally acquired new case in New South Wales. If the number of new infections remains low, it is expected that by mid-November the border between Victoria and South Australia may reopen.
 
Australia food and beverage sector welcomes government’s plan for post-COVID-19 economic fightback, the Modern Manufacturing Strategy, which also recognizes food manufacturing as one of the country’s priorities. The Strategy plans to invest A$1.5 billion in four years to rebuild the economy, create jobs and recover from the COVID-19 recession.

The OECD issued a report about the digital transformation in Brazil and the fact that it could reinforce economic recovery from COVID-19 pandemic. The report finds that despite recent progress, Brazil lags in investment in the level of digital skills in the workforce and in digital innovation. The OECD recommends ways to increase digital uptake among people and firms, strengthen digital security and privacy, and spur innovation.

According to a recent USDA GAIN report, the Central Bank of Chile has estimated an economic contraction between 5.5% and 7.5% for the current year. However, total consumption is projected to grow 1.1% in 2020. Due to COVID-19 related sanitary measures in place, from January to August 2020, US exports of agricultural products to Chile decreased by 5.7% over the same period of 2019. In addition to this, the Chilean Federation of Tourism Companies estimated $3.9 billion in losses if the pandemic continues to impact foreign travel and domestic tourism until December 2020. The tourism sector, which is the fourth most important sector in Chile, also projects that 80,000 jobs may be eliminated by the end of 2020. 

From November, Hong Kong residents staying in mainland China can return to their city without having to quarantine. In addition to this, a travel bubble between Hong Kong and Singapore is operative since November.
 
China suspended the entry for residents from United Kingdom, Belgium, India and Philippines in a temporary reaction to a new surge of COVID-19 cases in these countries. Travelers from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Italy, Nigeria and Ukraine, among others, are also included in the temporary ban. 

The EU Economic Affairs Commissioner, Paolo Gentiloni highlighted some of the effects of the pandemic in the EU economy. During July, August and September, the EU GDP grew by 12.7%, due to a low rate of infections and loosened lockdowns and travel restrictions. However, due to the rise of new infections during the last weeks and the reimposition of stricter prevention measures, the rebound of the EU economy has been interrupted. It is expected that the economy will go back to its pre-pandemic level by 2023.
 
On October 28, the EU issued the Coronavirus Resurgence Factsheet, which summarizes some of the EU response measures regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, such as increased testing capacity, effective communication to citizens, and securing essential supplies, among others.
 
EU-Canada leaders stressed the importance of joint efforts to overcome the pandemic in a virtual meeting held on October 29. They shared the commitment to take effective measures to protect health, ensure a robust economic recovery, and build more innovative, sustainable, inclusive and resilient economies. The leaders highlighted that solidarity, cooperation and effective multilateralism are essential to defeat the virus and accelerate the recovery. They also committed to continuing to work closely together in international fora including the G7, the G20, and the United Nations system. Both sides agreed that the EU and Canada will deepen their cooperation and exchange of information on COVID-19 vaccines including research, access, procurement and distribution.
 
After a video conference of the Eurogroup held on November 3, Pascal Donohoe, President of the Eurogroup, remarked the three safety nets approved in April, which are currently in place: 1) The Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE instrument) aims to protect jobs –support has already been granted to 17 Member States, 2) The European Investment Bank (EIB) Guarantee Fund supports businesses –in effect since summer, and 3) The Pandemic Crisis Support instrument of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) remains in place and reinforces market confidence in euro area sovereigns.
 
The European Council approved the conclusions on the role of the EU in strengthening the WHO. Some of the suggestions are: 1) a revision of the alert system for declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern to allow for differentiated levels of alerts, 2) a distinction between travel and trade restrictions under the International Health Regulations (IHR) in order to avoid unnecessary harm to economies, 3) the possibility of an independent epidemiological assessment on-site in high risk zones in close collaboration with the state party, and 4) increased transparency on national compliance with the IHR.

The country imposed lockdown measures in order to prevent the collapse of its health-care system, which is operating beyond limits. A few weeks ago, Belgium imposed a nighttime curfew, and more recently closed all non-essential stores and limited social contact to a minimum. In addition to this, schools remain closed at least until mid-November.

France announced a four-week nationwide lockdown until December 1. Non-essential businesses, restaurants and bars remain closed. Schools and workplaces remain open and care homes visits are allowed. However, people need a certificate to move around. 

The German Government announced a partial national lockdown. People are advised to stay at home, avoid travel and keep social contacts to an absolute minimum. However, schools remain open. By the end of November, the restrictions are expected to be reassessed. In order to compensate the losses caused by the lockdown, the Government offered a relief package of €10 billion.
 
Hospitals are under pressure, as the number of COVID-19 cases continue to rise across the country. For this reason, hospitals may be required to postpone non-critical operations, as there are not enough resources to treat an expected influx of COVID-19 patients and many of them are working at the limits of their capacity. 

On November 7, Greece applied a nationwide lockdown for three weeks in order to curb down COVID-19 resurgence of new cases. All businesses except supermarkets and pharmacies remain closed, primary schools remain open but high schools closed.
 
Earlier, Thessaloniki and the neighboring region of Serre’s were put in lockdown for 14 days. However, wholesale, industry, hotels and schools remained open. In addition to this, there is a temporary ban on international and domestic passenger flights to and from Thessaloniki Airport “Macedonia” from November 3 at 18:00 until November 17 midnight. The rest of the country is in partial lockdown. Face covering is mandatory as well as at least 50% teleworking in both the public and private sector.

Italy imposed full lockdown measures in several cities such as Bologna, Milan, Naples, Rome and Turin. The Government approved a relief package of about €5 billion aimed to help the hardest hit sectors by the COVID-19 lockdown and other restriction measures.

In addition to the State of Emergency imposed until May 9, 2021, which includes a nighttime curfew, most Spanish regions banned inter regional travel in order to avoid stronger lockdown measures. In some areas, the perimetral closure has been applied at a municipal level. 

The UK Government announced a four week national lockdown, from November 5 until December 2. This is the second national lockdown for England, with pubs, restaurants, gyms, leisure and entertainment venues, as well as non-essential shops, closed. 

India is the second worst COVID-19 hit country. However, it seems that the epidemic is slightly on the decline, due to the fact that recoveries have been outnumbering the detection of new infections. The main drivers for this turnaround are not clear, especially due to the fact that pandemic numbers are declining during the festival season, Bihar elections, and the restart of activities. It is also believed that one reason might be that health experts have been cautioning against lowering the guard. The festival season is not over, and the approaching of winter is likely to be an added complication because it could worsen respiratory conditions amongst infected people.
 
The port situation in India, according to a recent USDA GAIN report, indicates that the cargo volume in Mumbai Port dropped by 20% from April to October, compared to the same period last year. Overall, the trade volumes for the top 12 state-run ports fell 12% during April-October, compared to the same period of 2019: Tuticorin and Kandla ports cargo volume dropped by 11%; Chennai and Cochin by 22%; Kolkata by 14%, and Mangalore by 5%. In Mundra, it is expected that the container availability will normalize by mid-November, due to a growth in imports.

The Israeli Hotel Restaurant Institutional (HRI) sector has been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a recent USDA GAIN report. Israel’s Central Bank projected a GDP decrease of between 4.5% to 7% in 2020, after a 3.3% increase in 2019. Due to the restriction measures aimed to slow down the spread of the pandemic, the HRI sector estimates that about 2,000 businesses have closed during the first semester. Under the current scenario, the sector forecast the permanent closure of 4,500 businesses.

The number of new infections has been increasing during the last month. In October, at least 31 states set their COVID-19 case records, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. It is likely that, as new cases soar, further restrictions enter into force. For example, New York Government announced that most travelers must get COVID-19 tests before and after arrival in the state. Once in New York, travelers will be required to quarantine for three days before getting another test. If the second test is negative, the traveler will no longer be required to quarantine. The new policy replaces a previous advisory list of states from which travelers were required to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival in New York.
 
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published a series of considerations for the upcoming fall and winter holiday celebrations. The aim of these considerations is to help protect individuals and their families, friends and communities from COVID-19, without replacing any state, local or territorial health and safety rules. There are several factors that contribute to the risk of getting infected or infecting others with COVID-19 such as the location and the duration of the gathering, the number of attendees and where are they coming from, among others. Some of the recommendations are holding outdoor gatherings, limiting the number of attendees, and bringing extra masks and hand sanitizer, among others.
 
The USDA Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) paid more than $7 billion to agricultural producers in its second round. Since CFAP 2 enrollment began on September 21, the Farm Service Agency (FSA) has approved more than 443,000 applications. Through CFAP 2, the USDA is making available up to $14 billion for agricultural producers who continue to face market disruptions and associated costs because of COVID-19. FSA accepts CFAP 2 applications until December 11, 2020.

The information above is a review of actions the INC has compiled from government sources, international organizations and press media. This news article is not intended to be exhaustive and it does not reflect the opinions of the INC. While the publishers believe that all information contained in this publication was correct at the time of publishing, they can accept no liability for any inaccuracies that may appear or loss suffered directly or indirectly by any reader as a result of any advertisement, editorial, photographs or other materials published in this news article.