According to industry sources, total crop is expected to amount to 2.9 billion pounds/1.316 million metric tons (net crop of 2.842 B lbs./1.289 M MT). Due to the logistical problems the industry is facing with shipping lines, shipments are anticipated to reach a total of around 2.6-2.7 B lbs. (1.179-1.224 M MT), leaving a carry out of around 750-850 M lbs. (340,200-386,000 MT).
The January 2022 Almond Board of California Position Report shows receipts of 2.828 B lbs. (approx. 1.283 M MT) year-to-date, trailing the 2020/21 volume by 6.5% through the first six months. Total shipments August through January are down 16% when compared to last year’s record-setting pace. Current Computed Inventory is up 10% due to a carry-in of 608 M lbs. (approx. 276,000 MT) and shipments of 1.239 B lbs. (about 562,000 MT). Domestic shipments August through January have outperformed exports and are up 0.3% vs. CY 2020/21 at 392 M lbs. (approx. 176,900 MT). Global logistics challenges continue to put pressure on exports which are down 22% from a year ago. Shipments to Japan are up 14% through the first 6 months at nearly 42 M lbs. (18,900 MT) even while exports to the Asia-Pacific region lag CY 2020/21 totals.


The Almond Board of Australia announced a crop estimate of 145,000 MT for 2022/23, which is up on the 124,439 MT produced last season. The increase is due to existing plantings maturing and will be the second step in a significant five-year growth phase that will see the Australia crop exceed 185,000 MT by 2025. Almost 18 million trees have been planted across almost 59,000 hectares in the southern Murray Darling Basin and the Swan region of Western Australia.
The upcoming marketing season looks set to be one most the most challenging for the industry. ABA CEO Tim Jackson said that ongoing sea freight congestion was creating a lot of uncertainty and delayed shipments for the almond industry globally. “New season Australian almonds will be in high demand and a lot is being done behind the scenes to maintain a record pace for our export program. Despite all the challenges over the past 12 months, a record amount of product was delivered to more than 50 countries”, he said.
Mr. Jackson also pointed out that there had been a clear change in mindset with major buyers switching from a “just in time” ordering mentality, to one of ordering with a “just in case” philosophy to safeguard inventory levels. Buyers appear to be receptive to spreading their supply risk by procuring from more sources than they previously might, and this could open up exciting new sales opportunities in 2022. 


According to the Nut Spanish Growers Association (AEOFRUSE) latest report, based on the Spanish Ministry of Industry and Trade data, December 2021 shipments were up by 37% from 2020 and added up to 11,700 MT, from which 8,538 MT were shelled almonds and the remaining 3,161 MT were processed forms (roasted and flour). Exports from August through December amounted to 71,872 MT, up by 19% from the same period in 2020. Western Europe remains the main market, representing 80% and 83% of the monthly and YTD shipments, respectively (including conventional and organic almonds, and re-exports).

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