The information contained herein was prepared between mid-September and October 2026.
Türkiye. The Black Sea Hazelnut Exporters’ Association revised its forecast for the 2026 crop slightly downward to 803,770 metric tons (in-shell basis), from the 805,246 MT estimated in late July, following further orchard assessments of kernel size and yield. The kernel recovery ratio remains at 50%.
The 2025/26 marketing season closed with exports totaling 197,085 MT (kernel equivalent), down 36% and 35% from 2024/25 and 2023/24, respectively. Export values reached US$2.51 billion, declining by 2% year-on-year and standing 7% above 2023/24 levels. Monthly exports totaled 18,929 MT in September, the first month of the 2026/27 season, up 36% from 2025, but 23% below 2024. Values reached US$192.1 million, increasing by 33% year-on-year and 2% below 2024.
At the time of reporting, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) had purchased approximately 77,000 MT of in-shell hazelnuts, with a further 100,000 MT scheduled for delivery through its appointment system. Meanwhile, exports were progressing more slowly than usual, potentially leading to higher carryover inventories. Ending stocks for the 2026/27 season were tentatively estimated at 270,000 MT.
USA. Harvest began in Oregon in September, with excellent weather conditions at the time of reporting. Overall crop was likely slightly larger than previously forecasted, but in line with expectations. Despite the increased volumes, both in-shell and kernel sizing appeared to be normal and no disruption to production or trade was anticipated. Kernel quality was excellent with very few defects. Traditional confectionary interest in US hazelnut remained high, while discretionary consumption lost due to 2025 prices was being rebuilt with more modest trade values.
Chile. Winter conditions were favorable, with normal flowering counting. As of this report, spring conditions were also progressing normally, with some rainfall but no impact on the crop’s potential. Additional orchards entering production are expected to support higher production in the 2027 crop.
Italy. Despite an exceptionally long summer with record temperatures in several production areas, production remained relatively resilient. The crop is estimated above average, supporting a positive market outlook.
