Turkey
Harvest began in September with approximately two weeks delay and continued with the mid-high altitudes’ orchards throughout October. The Blacksea Exporters’ Association crop estimation of 830,628 metric tons (in-shell basis) is expected to remain valid. The first indications of kernel size distribution and yield performances are optimum. Post-harvest drying conditions will impact supply flow. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) announced its procurement benchmark price as 52TL/kg for Levant variety, with stricter quality criteria than market, and started the campaign in late August in more than 40 receiving points. As macroeconomic conditions loom in EU markets, demand patterns are watched carefully. TL parity against USD and EUR has continued to be calm, where a weak EUR/USD could keep EUR prices strong.
Italy
The Italian crop, preliminary forecasted at 150,000 MT, was revised down to around 100,000 MT, mainly due to the drought that occurred throughout the country. On top of that, since mid-August persistent rainfall has significantly impacted the final quality. The heavy rain has also hindered the harvesting and made the dried product that fell on the ground to become moldy.
USA
Weather conditions have been ideal for both tree growth as well as crop development. Ample rainfall and extensive irrigation systems ensured large kernel sizing. New bearing acres continue to come online, resulting in what will likely be another record crop. The increased availability of additional stocks of highly blanchable kernels will continue, with many of the new hectares coming into production being of those varieties.
Industry opinions suggest that the 2022 crop size will be 75,000 MT; however, the USDA NASS Objective Yield Survey has published a lower number of 61,700 MT. New-crop supply, paired with a larger-than-normal carry in of 11,000 MT, will result in a record total supply. Given a slightly later-than-normal crop, growers and processors are prepared for an abbreviated shipping window to traditional in-shell markets into Asia.