India-EU: Free Trade Deal
On January 27, 2026, India and the EU concluded negotiations on a free trade agreement that will be the largest such deal ever concluded by either side.
The deal will enable greater market integration between the world’s 4th and 2nd largest economies. India will gain preferential access to the EU market across 97% of tariff lines, covering 99.5% of the trade value of its exports to the Union. The EU, in turn, will see tariffs eliminated or reduced on over 92% of tariff lines, covering 97.5% of its exports to India by trade value.
The deal aims to simplify customs procedures to make exports quicker and easier. The EU and India have also agreed to rules of origin that ensure that only products that have been significantly processed in one of the parties can benefit from the tariff preferences of the agreement. At the time of this report, it was unclear precisely how the deal would affect trade rules for nuts and dried fruits specifically.
As for next steps, the negotiated draft texts are expected to be published shortly. On the EU side, the Commission will put forward its proposal to the Council for signature and conclusion of the agreement. Once adopted by the Council, the EU and India can sign the agreements. Following the signature, the agreement requires the European Parliament’s consent, as well as the Council’s decision on conclusion for it to enter into force. Once India also ratifies the Agreement, it can enter into force.
For further information, see:
Indian Ministry of Commerce fact sheet
EU fact sheet: EU agri-food exports
India-USA: Trump Announces Reduction of Tariffs on Indian Goods
Tariff tensions between India and the United States eased suddenly on February 2, 2026, when US President Donald Trump announced via social media a significant decrease in the tariffs charged by the US on goods from India.
“Out of friendship and respect for President Modi and, per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%,” Trump wrote. “They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO.”
In reality, most Indian goods entering the US have faced a tariff of 50%—not 25%—since August 2025, when Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% duty on Indian goods entering the US, in retaliation for India’s purchases of Russian oil. US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor later confirmed to NDTV that the total US tariff on Indian goods will be 18%.
At the time of this report, Trump’s social media post had not been followed by an executive order enshrining the terms of the deal. In his own social media post, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi confirmed that the two leaders had spoken and celebrated the new 18% tariff rate, but made no mention of India agreeing to slash tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US goods.
China: Increased Tariff Rates on Dried Cranberries
China’s Ministry of Finance has published an announcement from the State Council Tariff Commission (SCTC) detailing China’s 2026 tariff adjustment plan. Under the plan, the tentative MFN tariff rate previously applied to dried cranberries has been eliminated. Consequently, as of January 1, 2026, the tariff rate on dried cranberries has risen from 15% to 25%.
For more information, see the recent GAIN Report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which contains an unofficial translation of China’s 2026 tariff adjustment plan.
EU-USA: Trade Deal Uncertain as Trump Issues—and Retracts—Tariff Threats Over Greenland
On January 17, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that he would impose a 10% tariff on goods entering the United States from eight European countries that oppose Trump’s efforts to gain control of Greenland, as reported by AP News. In his social media post, Trump stated that the tariff would apply to Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom as of February 1 and rise to 25% on June 1 if no deal was reached for the “Complete and Total purchase of Greenland” by the US. As of this report, Trump’s social media post has not been followed by any official communication from the White House confirming the policy change, and it is unclear whether the threatened tariffs would be added to existing duties.
The threat cast doubt on the future of the trade deal reached by the EU and the US six months ago, which was intended to provide stability and predictability for citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. Under that deal, the EU agreed to a 15% tariff on everything it sells to the US—significantly lower than the 30% rate threatened by Trump at the time—and 0% tariffs on US goods entering the Union. On January 21, the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee suspended work towards parliamentary ratification of the deal.
On the same day, after meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, Trump stated that he would not be imposing the threatened tariffs on February 1 after reaching the “framework” of a potential agreement on Greenland, according to the BBC.
EU-USA: EU Extends Suspension of Countermeasures on US Nuts and Dried Fruits
On February 5, 2026, the European Commission published an implementing regulation suspending countermeasures affecting imports of a broad range of goods from the US, including nuts and dried fruits.
As background, the EU adopted the countermeasures in July 2025, in response to expansive US tariffs. Following the conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement in August 2025, the EU agreed to suspend these countermeasures for a six-month period. The suspension was explicitly made subject to review, depending on subsequent developments in EU-US trade relations.
In January 2026, against the backdrop of escalating tensions over Greenland, the EU had to decide whether to allow the suspension of the countermeasures to expire.
Following Trump’s retraction of the Greenland-related tariff threat on January 21, the EU moved forward with the implementing regulation, which extends the suspension of the countermeasures until August 6, 2026.
EU: End-Use Customs Supervision of Duty Suspension for Dried Cranberries
The autonomous duty suspension for dried cranberries for the manufacture of products of food processing industries (excluding packing or pasteurization alone as processing), which applies since January 1, 2026, is subject to end-use customs supervision in accordance with Article 254 of Regulation (EU) No 952/2013.
Prior authorization from the customs authorities is required for the end-use procedure, as outlined in Article 211 of Regulation (EU) No 952/2013. The conditions for obtaining authorization are as follows:
- Establishment in the customs territory of the Union
- Necessary assurance of the proper conduct of the operations
- Provision of a guarantee
For further information about obtaining said authorization, see chapter 1 of the guidance document on special procedures published by the European Commission.
MERCOSUR-EU: Future of Trade Deal Uncertain After European Parliament Vote
On January 21, 2026, the European Parliament dealt a blow to the MERCOSUR-EU free trade deal by voting to refer the agreement for review by the EU’s top court. This setback comes just days after MERCOSUR and EU officials met for a formal signing ceremony and casts doubt on the future of the deal.
By a narrow majority—334 MEPs in favor, 324 against and 11 abstaining—the chamber voted to adopt a resolution asking for a legal opinion on the agreement from the European Court of Justice (ECJ). The legal basis of the EU-MERCOSUR partnership agreement (EMPA) and the interim trade agreement (ITA) will now be reviewed by the ECJ. The European Parliament will continue its examination of the texts, while awaiting the opinion of the court. Only then, Parliament will be able to vote to grant consent—or not—to the agreement.
This move could significantly delay the finalization of the deal. However, as noted by Reuters, the Commission could still seek to apply the agreement provisionally pending the court ruling and parliamentary approval.
USA: Supreme Court Expected to Rule on Trump’s IEEPA Tariffs
The US Supreme Court is at the center of a high-stakes legal battle over President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, many of which were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
The Trump administration invoked IEEPA, a statute historically used for narrow emergency economic sanctions, to justify broad trade tariffs—a move critics say overstepped his presidential authority. Lower courts have already ruled that IEEPA does not authorize such tariff powers because only the US Congress has the constitutional authority to tax or impose duties.
The case now before the Supreme Court will determine whether Trump’s IEEPA tariffs will remain in place. Despite expectations of a decision in early January, the Supreme Court has so far not issued a ruling, and no date has been set for the decision. For now, the IEEPA tariffs remain in effect.
If the tariffs are struck down, the US Treasury could potentially be on the hook for up to US$150 billion in refunds of duties. On January 2, US Customs and Border Protection issued an interim final rule mandating that, with limited exceptions, all refunds will be issued electronically via Automated Clearing House (ACH) transfers. As noted by Mondaq, this change effectively ends the use of paper checks, and any importer seeking a refund must be enrolled in the ACH Refund program.
USA: Trump Threatens Iran’s Trading Partners With 25% Tariff
On January 12, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on goods entering the United States, as reported by Reuters. In his social media post, Trump stated that the new tariff would take effect “immediately.” As of this report, however, the announcement has not been followed by any official communication from the White House confirming the policy change.