Macadamias Crop Forecast Report

As reported by the Australian Macadamia Society, weather conditions have been favorable with the majority of regions receiving good rains over December and early January. While some varieties are performing better than others, overall early indications for the 2021 crop are positive. Given the favorable conditions combined with new plantings coming into bearing, the 2021 crop is predicted to reach 50,770 MT in-shell at 3.5% NIS moisture content, based on a model developed by the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries.
 
The final crop forecast for the 2020 season is 46,900 MT in-shell. Orchards weathered the drought conditions well in 2020, proving how naturally resilient these native trees are. Sustained investment by growers in orchard floor management continues, which is integral to managing soil moisture.

According to Macadamias South Africa, the 2020 crop added up to 48,925 metric tons in-shell at 1.5 % kernel moisture content, down 17% from 2019. As previously reported, adverse conditions during flowering and early nut development, mature orchards, pruning (or the lack thereof) and insects and diseases played a role in the decline of the 2020 macadamia crop. Crop 2021 is anticipated to be similar to 2020. Tropical storm Eloise is not expected to have a major impact on yields and rainfall in the major producing areas might favor nut development and yields.

As per the Nut Processors Association of Kenya, the 2020 crop is likely to close at 39,750 MT, at 10% NIS moisture content/37,000 MT NIS 3.5 m.c, 7% above 2019 closing of 37,200 MT/34,700 MT. The precipitation and sunshine were good and the quality of nuts is expected to be better than last year. Based on the recent year's plantings and with new trees coming to fruition every year, crop 2021 is projected to reach 45,300 MT/42,250 MT.
 
Kernel sales have been slower than the previous year owing to COVID-19 market disruptions. The closing inventories for 2019 have cleared and the industry is looking forward to a market resurgence in early 2021 to take any carryover stocks.