While the Mexican Government still has not published a final figure for the 2021 crop, based on USDA import figures, it is estimated that the crop was approximately 128,425 metric tons, in-shell basis. Heavy rains over the first half of September have filled local reservoirs and supplied badly needed water during the critical filling period of the nuts. As such, kernel quality is expected to be good. At the conclusion of the industry’s annual meeting, the first week of September, COMENUEZ estimated the 2022 crop to be 145,151 MT, 12% more than in 2021.


The same rains that drenched Northern Mexico dropped significant quantities of rain throughout the pecan belt. While the rains did cause severe flooding in some areas, early indications suggest minimal damage to the crop. Overall, growing conditions continue to be favorable, and barring any natural disasters, quality should be good. At the conclusion of the annual meeting of the National Pecan Sheller’s Association, the organization forecasted a 2022 crop of 137,893 MT. The USDA will publish the first official estimate of the crop in early October. While the industry is forecasting a slightly larger supply than in 2021, increased fertilizer, fuel, finance, labor and transportation costs should prevent a significant change in current market prices


This year’s crop year is about 5% up from 2021. Some growing areas are experiencing serious drought, especially alongside the Yangzi River watershed. With about 80,000 hectares, from which 30% are bearing, pecan is grown in nine provinces.


The 2022 crop concluded lower than expected, due to the severe drought that affected the entire production zone, along with periods of very high temperatures. The average fruit size was smaller, but with a good kernel yield. Both in-shell and shelled exports continue to grow. For 2023, a better crop, of around 7,000 MT is expected, even with a forecast of below average rainfall for the growing season.

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