Raisins, Sultanas, and Currants Crop Progress Report

According to the Aegean Exporters’ Association, shipments year to date (September 1, 2020-January 30, 2021) added up to 105,936 metric tons (US$203.8 million), down by 13% from the same period in 2019/20. With export volumes amounting to 55,279 MT and 30,966 MT, the EU and the UK remained as the major markets, although below by 15% and 9% from YTD 2019/20. Exports YTD to Eurasia accounted for 10,640 MT, up 3% from last season and led by Australia (58% of the share and up by 37% against 2019/20). The Americas ranked fourth with shipments of 3,351 MT and below 32% against 2019/20. 

The raisin growing region in California experienced good weather during the 2020 growing season. However, the 2020/21 crop is expected to be smaller compared to the 2019/20 crop due to a reduction in producing acres and less crop made per acre. The fires that burned in the surrounding mountain areas in August and September last year created smoke that impacted the timing of drying and deliveries. Deliveries as of the end of December 2020 were about 158,000 MT and are expected to continue through July 2021.
 
Shipments increased 6% between August through December 2020 posting strong pre-holiday volume compared to the same period last year. Shipments could have been higher if it were not for the recent disruptions caused by steamship lines. Vessel delays, rolled bookings and cancellations have negatively impacted export shipments.

Crop 2020/21 is estimated at 180,000 MT, 17% up from 2019/20. International shipments through January 10, 2021, added up to 85,000 MT and 40,000 MT are bounded to domestic consumption. The remaining stock of 55,000 MT is expected to be shipped through the end of the crop year.

Raisin crop 2020 is estimated at 100,000 metric tons, about 50% shorter than the 2019 crop due to frost damages that occurred during last winter. Although in some producing areas, such as XinJiang, the COVID-19-related lockdown in August 2020 delayed the dry process, affecting the quality, the overall quality is good.

As reported by Raisins South Africa, just before the start of the harvesting and drying season, the Orange River Valley has been hampered by early heavy rains through December 2020 and January 2021, which are expected to result in some losses, especially for Sultana’s –a third of South African raisins production. At the time of writing this report, Merbein’s –close to half of South Africa’s hectarage– were still holding up. Raisins South Africa, along with processors technical staff, have been in frequent communication with growers to ensure that the necessary practices at the farm level were being executed to minimize crop and product damage as far as possible.
 
Crop forecast for Olifants River –12% of South Africa’s raisin production– looked on target as it was not affected by the rain and it might surpass production volumes of 2020.
 
The 2020 marketing season (January-December) was very positive, with good demand, which is foreseen to keep increasing, partly due to a strong drive towards healthier consumption. COVID-19 has impacted logistics in general, for various reasons; overall, there is a shortage of containers and delays.