The preliminary Chinese crop is forecasted to remain at last season’s level. Some late frost damage was reported in the northwestern part of the producing region, but the actual extent of the impact was yet to been determined. The objective estimate is expected to be released by next August.

Over the last ten years, new walnut plantings in China significantly increased, and with them, so did the total crop. However, for the last two to three years, the acreage has no longer been increasing due to an imbalance between production costs and prices.



The May Shipment Report of the California Walnut Board and Commission reported a re-evaluated shell out ratio of 40.1 for the 2022/23 season. Taking into account the adjusted ratio and forecasted shipments through the end of August, plus the USDA purchase 2023 Q4 shipments, the 2022/23 ending stock is forecasted below the previous season, at around 80,000 short tons (72,600 metric tons).

The heavy rains and ample cold weather during winter has led to strong growth during the spring and a solid nut set. Mild temperatures continued through June providing perfect growing conditions. The trees have recovered nicely from the drought and enter the final months before harvest in the best condition seen for many years. Provided that conditions remain favorable during summer, the 2023/24 crop was, at the time of this report, forecasted at around 680,000 MT. With predicted excellent quality and favorable pricing, expectations are for an increase in utilization, so that the ending stocks will be similar to last year.



Harvesting in 2023 was completed by the end of April and, as reported by Chilenut, the crop was estimated at 170,400 MT (in-shell basis), 9% lower than last year. Overall weather conditions during harvesting were favorable. Compared to last year, quality is better in terms of kernel color distribution. A record hot springtime impacted nut size and the share of size 30 or more is 3% lower.

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