The information contained herein was prepared between September and October 2024.
China. The 2024/25 crop forecast is 1.5 million metric tons (in-shell), a significant increase from last season, driven by favorable weather across key growing regions. Trees produced abundant but smaller fruit, with more double and triple berries. Harvesting began in August and was expected to continue through early October.
The selling season started much earlier, with strong demand and heavy bookings, securing early September shipments. The market remains firm ahead of the seasonal holidays, with record export volumes anticipated for Q4.
USA. According to the USDA 2024 California Walnut Industry Objective Measurement Report, production is forecast at 670,000 short tons (607,814 MT in-shell), down 19% from last year’s record crop. Harvest began under favorable weather, which is expected to support good quality. The estimated carry-in is 92,000 MT, with over 75,545 MT already pre-committed.
The forecast is based on 150,000 hectares, with 8,500 ha coming into production over the next two years, and 54% of the orchards less than 15 years old, ensuring a strong future production base.
Chile. Chilenut reports year-to-date exports of 83,800 MT (in-shell equivalent), down 24% from last season. However, August exports matched last year at 19,400 MT. Shipments to Europe, both in-shell and shelled, increased compared to 2023 for August and year-to-date.
