South Africa’s pecan industry is highly export-oriented, with more than 97% of its in-shell pecan exports destined for China, according to a new GAIN report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), published on September 18, 2026. For marketing year 2025/26, which began in April 2026, USDA expects South African in-shell pecan exports to China to increase.
The outlook is being supported by changes in China’s trade policy. South African pecans have benefited from zero-duty access to the Chinese market since May 1, 2026. At the same time, China has imposed anti-dumping measures on pecans from the United States and Mexico. USDA therefore expects South Africa to be well positioned to capture part of the market share that US and Mexican suppliers may lose.
The picture is different for shelled pecans sold into Europe. USDA estimates that South African shelled pecan exports, which are mainly destined for the European Union, will decline in MY 2025/26. The report links the weaker outlook to the EU’s 3.5 mg/kg maximum permissible level for nickel in pecans, which has applied since July 1, 2025, and has created an additional regulatory constraint for exporters.
