The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its October 2026 World Economic Outlook on October 13, during the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The IMF projects global growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026 before recovering to 3.4% in 2027. It expects global headline inflation to rise notably to 4.7% this year and ease to 4.1% in 2027.
According to the IMF, technology investment, policy buffers and private-sector adaptation have helped economies absorb disruption linked to geopolitics, but risks are tilted to the downside. Energy-importing economies outside the technology value chain face the most difficult outlook. The IMF linked the rise in inflation mainly to higher energy and food prices. It also urged governments to keep any support to households temporary and targeted, and highlighted energy security and open trade as long-term priorities. Speaking at the opening of the meetings, World Bank President Ajay Banga said the Bank is focusing on low-cost “small AI” tools to raise productivity among farmers, health centers and teachers in emerging markets.
Overall, the outlook points to continued pressure on energy, freight and financing costs, as well as uneven consumer demand across importing markets, with lower-income and energy-importing countries most exposed.
