Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in September reached its highest level since the war began at the end of February. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, at least 477 vessels not linked to Iran crossed the strait during the month. Inbound movements into the Gulf, which Lloyd’s List treats as a sign of shipowner confidence, rose to at least 231, up from 198 in August and 160 in July. Bulk carrier transits also stayed well above levels seen in the spring.
The security situation has deteriorated in parallel. Lloyd’s List reported that attacks on tankers and gas carriers have hit a seven-month high, with at least 13 recorded since September 28. On October 7, Iran said it would close a route through the strait that was being used to get around its restrictions, as reported by the Guardian. On October 12, India’s government condemned attacks the previous day on two tankers carrying Indian crew, two of whom were reported missing.
Lloyd’s List notes that even where flows have recovered, the workarounds now in use are much more expensive than before the crisis. The International Monetary Fund’s latest outlook now assumes the strait will reopen in March 2027, with conditions returning to pre-war levels by October 2027.
