2024

The information contained herein was prepared between mid-September and October 2024.

Türkiye. Harvest began on schedule, drying conditions were favorable and there were no significant delays. After a dryer-than-average summer and populous brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) presence, crop size and quality varied across regions. Yields were average overall but lower in areas with high BMSB incidence. Quality, in general, is lower than last season, but larger crops in some areas mitigated some of the season’s challenges. Some industry sources anticipate a lower crop; however, at the time of this report, the extent of the reduction was uncertain.

The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) launched the procurement campaign with in-shell hazelnuts priced at 130 TL/kg. As reported by the Black Sea Hazelnut Exporters Association, total exports in 2023/24 (July-August) reached 303,458 metric tons (kernel basis), up 1.64% from 2022/23. Outlook for this season’s shipments was, at the time of reporting, optimistic and expected to reach up to 310,000 MT.

Italy. The 2024/25 crop was revised down to approximately 95,000 MT. A dry, hot summer adversely affected pollination, particularly in the Piedmont region. Wet conditions during harvest impacted yield and quality. Consequently, the industry is facing higher production costs from extra sorting needed to address quality issues.

USA. By mid-September, harvest in Oregon was well underway with excellent weather conditions. In-shell nut sizing is better than the previous crop and above historical averages. Kernels appear to be well filled. Some elevated blank/unfilled counts have been reported, but in rather isolated observations. Other kernel defects remain very low and should provide for superior quality.

Chile. In Maule, a shortage of chilling hours followed by a chilly spring led to an overall reduced yield. However, the impact was partially mitigated by new orchards entering production. In the central and southern producing regions, harvest was slowed by rainfall. Nonetheless, these regions experienced more stable yields and quality remained high, thanks to efficient drying processes. Based on winter conditions, the outlook for the 2025 harvest is positive.
 

The information contained herein was prepared between September and October 2024.

China. The 2024/25 crop forecast is 1.5 million metric tons (in-shell), a significant increase from last season, driven by favorable weather across key growing regions. Trees produced abundant but smaller fruit, with more double and triple berries. Harvesting began in August and was expected to continue through early October.

The selling season started much earlier, with strong demand and heavy bookings, securing early September shipments. The market remains firm ahead of the seasonal holidays, with record export volumes anticipated for Q4.

USA. According to the USDA 2024 California Walnut Industry Objective Measurement Report, production is forecast at 670,000 short tons (607,814 MT in-shell), down 19% from last year’s record crop. Harvest began under favorable weather, which is expected to support good quality. The estimated carry-in is 92,000 MT, with over 75,545 MT already pre-committed.

The forecast is based on 150,000 hectares, with 8,500 ha coming into production over the next two years, and 54% of the orchards less than 15 years old, ensuring a strong future production base.

Chile. Chilenut reports year-to-date exports of 83,800 MT (in-shell equivalent), down 24% from last season. However, August exports matched last year at 19,400 MT. Shipments to Europe, both in-shell and shelled, increased compared to 2023 for August and year-to-date.

The information contained herein was prepared between mid-September and October 2024.

USA. The Almond Board of California’s second position report on the 2024/25 crop (August 2024 – July 2025) shows receipts of 1,035 million pounds (approx. 469,500 metric tons) of kernel weight through September 2024. Receipts were higher than in the same period in 2023, which was impacted by a delayed start to harvest. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service estimated the 2024/25 crop at 2.8 billion lbs. (approx. 1.27 M MT).

Shipments for 2023/24, totaling 2.692 B lbs. (1.22 M MT), were the second largest in history and were about 300 M lbs. (approx. 136,000 metric tons) more than total production, meaning that the carry-in inventory for 2024/25 is down 37% from last year. The reduced inventory was reflected in 2024 year-to-date total shipments (August 1 – September 30), which were down 11% from a year ago. Domestic shipments were down 5% for the first two months, and exports were down 14% at 264 M lbs. (119,00 MT). Despite a 1% decline, exports to India remain robust, sustaining the strong growth trend in this market. Exports to Europe were also down from a year ago while the Middle East was up by 36%.

Australia. As reported by the Almond Board of Australia, the industry is experiencing a strong 2024/25 selling season, driven by rising demand from China and India. August marked the third consecutive month of record-breaking sales, and the fourth in the last six months, despite rising prices. Total exports to China surged by 93% compared to last year, while Indian demand was recovering after a slow start, aided by the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement. Although domestic sales remain flat, total export volumes are up 21%, at 88,090 MT kernel weight equivalent and in-shell sales reached a record level at over 47,000 MT, up from 27,000 last year.

The 2024/25 crop was updated to 153,550 MT, primarily due to lower yields from older trees. Late September frosts in key growing regions have raised concerns for the 2025/26 crop, with the full extent of the impact still being assessed at the time of reporting.

Spain. As of the time of reporting, the 2024/25 harvest was expected to be below earlier estimates. Various weather-related issues, including excessive rainfall in spring and drought in southeastern Spain, along with damage caused by extreme heat during the last two seasons, have reduced the yield. Some sources estimate the drop to be around 15% compared to earlier projections. Despite the lower yield, quality remains good, with sizes slightly larger than last year. A significant improvement in prices, which have risen by over 30% compared to the previous year, helped to improve farmers’ profitability after several challenging years.

According to AEOFRUSE, total exports for the 2023/24 season (August 2023 – July 2024) —encompassing Spanish origin and re-exports, both conventional and organic, as well as natural and processed almonds— reached 143,422 MT, an 8% increase from 2022/23. Western Europe, the primary market, accounted for 111,943 MT, a 6% rise from the previous season.

Portugal. As per Portugal Nuts reports, despite cold and windy conditions during the flowering period, both self-fertile and pollinated varieties showed satisfactory fruit setting, exceeding the output of the previous season. While the wet spring helped to meet water requirements, it also introduced challenges in disease management, which required continuous monitoring and interventions from producers.

Yield expectations, as of this report, varied across different varieties and regions. Warm and dry conditions during harvest facilitated smoother operations. Kernel sizes appear to be in line with expectations, with very good quality reported. The expansion of newly bearing hectares in central and southern Portugal is expected to support growth in production volume.